I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

Where is the puck going? In this case the "app" puck?

RIM is betting on "SuperApps"

http://us.blackberry.com/developers/started/super_apps.jsp

What are some characteristics of superApps? As defined by RIM this includes the following features (drawn from their website):

When running in the background, a Super App can pull down critical data, update its Home screen icon and register custom menu items with the native BlackBerry smartphone applications. A Super App can also:

• Start when the BlackBerry smartphone is powered up
• Listen and react to events
• Listen for inbound push data
• Download content before the user needs it
• Generate notifications
• Share data with other third-party apps

Windows Mobile 7, as seen by anyone who has not been hiding in a cave for the past few weeks, is also pushing a similar concept with their always updating tiles

I think the concept of a SuperApp, Utility or Whatyoumightcallit is pointing towards where the Puck is moving next. My definition would include something similar to RIM's:

- Always on, always useful even without always having network access

- Pushed to you, before you ask for it

- Context, location and occasion aware

- Portable across devices

- Seamlessly moving across heterogenous networks

Mobile Utilities

I have been thinking a lot about the concept of a "mobile utility". I think Blackberry e-mail is a great example: once you have set the service up, you just wait and your e-mail just comes to you, alerts you through vibration and maybe some lights on the phone, you click on it and you see it. Why can't more things be like that? We have been experimenting at MobileAware with the notion of taking airline check-in to the level of "utility". Same deal as with email, with a bit of set-up, the expectation is that when you are due to check-in, the service would complete 99% of the check-in process for you and send a text asking you to confirm.

(by the way, I am reviving the blog after almost a year of disuse) - let me know if the content is interesting

Deflationary Business Models

I was interested to read a story about deflation in Japanese coffee dispensers in the FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0bad846-ed91-11de-ba12-00144feab49a.html. This made me think about the tremendous amount of capacity overbuild in Western economics on the back of artificially low interest rates, and the concomitant excess in capacity. Would that not tend to suggest that we should also be seeing some interesting deflationary dynamics? What is novel is that unlike the deflation in goods that we have experienced in the past years - enabled by cheap Chinese imports - the new deflation might come in the form of services, which have for the most part resisted such tendencies. Some of the groups that have captured on this trend include players such as Groupon.com - who just snagged $30M from Accel and is based in Chicago, and Buywithme.com, which is based in Boston.

Mary Meeker has spoken

Following on her initial shot across the bows a few months ago, Meeker and team from Morgan Stanley have come out with the definitive bible on the Mobile Internet. The blogosphere has responded in kind, see a few samples below. I was fortunate to have a plane ride long enough to be able to digest all 500+ pages last week and I fundamentally buy what she is selling. Some of it is repetitive, and known territory but there is also some original thinking around the convergence of mobile and social media (not that this convergence has not been predicted for some time, but a case around how it might happen). I think this all reinforces some of the themes around which this blog is anchored


Mobile Internet Could Surpass Desktop, Says Morgan Stanley ... - 4:38pm
5 days ago - By Contributor Wireless and Mobile News on December 17, 2009 12:04 PM. morgainstanley.jpg Morgan Stanley has release “The Mobile Internet Report.” ...www.wirelessandmobilenews.com/.../mobile_internet_could_surpass_desktop_says_morgan_stanley.html - Cached
Morgan Stanley sees bright future for mobile Web, credits Apple ...
6 days ago - In a nutshell, the mobile Internet is the future - and Morgan Stanley sees it ... (such as video / audio streaming) will stress carrier wireless networks. ...blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=28637 - Cached
Morgan Stanley: Mobile web to overtake desktop in five years ...
5 days ago - Cox's Bye dishes on LTE, 700 MHz and bundling wireless ... Morgan Stanley's 424-page Mobile Internet Report contends the mobile web cycle is just beginning, ...www.fiercemobilecontent.com/.../morgan-stanley.../2009-12-17 - Cached
VoIP Watch: Morgan Stanley's Mobile Internet Report
2 days ago - The latest edition of the the annual Mobile Internet Report, from Morgan Stanley, is a must read if you make a living in mobile. ...andyabramson.blogs.com/.../morgan-stanleys-mobile-internet-report.html - Cached
Mobile VoIP - Morgan Stanley Report Examines Impact of Mobile Internet
5 hours ago - Morgan Stanley's recently released 'Mobile Internet Report' is an extensive look at the impact of the swiftly ... TMCnet Industries Site. 4G Wireless/WiMAX ...mobile-voip.tmcnet.com/.../71488-morgan-stanley-report-examines-impact-mobile-internet.htm
Morgan Stanley Releases Mobile Internet Report - Cell Phone Digest

Value Migration

Just for fun, the other day I was looking at the evolution of market caps for a number of well known Western companies over the past five years. It is interesting to note that when Apple cut its deal with ATT (lets say 2006, one year prior to launch), ATT was worth roughly 2.5x Apple, and could have easily bought 25% of Apple as part of the deal. Today, Apple is worth about 20% more than ATT, mostly because Apple has grown and ATT has remained flat. The broader point is that, during the period 1995 to 2005 there was substantial value creation in telco, for example the emergence of Vodafone, Nokia's surge in value, and so on. However, since around 2006/2007, many traditional telco operators and OEMs have seen almost no valuation increase or even substantial declines. On the other hand, a few players such as RIM, Apple and Amazon have seen notable increases in valuation over the past 4-5 years. I believe that this signifies the beginning of two fundamental trends:

1. Valuation may have peaked for Western telco operators and OEMs, as they have run out of EBITDA growth in their core markets, and have shown little aptitude for entering new markets. Those smart or lucky to have made bets in emerging markets (e.g. Telefonica, Nokia), may get somewhat of a reprieve, but for the most part this trend will be inexorable. Instead, wireless valuation growth will primarily come from non-traditional players, who understand how to create profitable marketplaces at the intersection of wireless and adjacent ecosystems. Although players like Apple, Amazon, Google will be prime beneficiaries, an ecosystem of followers will be ushered in by fundamental re-alignments in the wireless value chain.
2. In particular, we will see a shift in valuation from Europe to the US. Wireless was one of the areas in tech where until even 2008 Europe was viewed as substantially ahead of the US. The competition has shifted rapidly and dramatically to the US, and today what matters most are the advances in Apple's, RIMs, Palm or Google's OS. The wave of innovation hitting the US market in response to the new OS war is only beginning, and we can expect to see second and third order effects. For example, smartphone mania in the US, may have helped accelerate the decisions by both Verizon and ATT to accelerate LTE deployment, and the US companies will be ahead of Europe in deploying this new 4G standard. The availabilty of 4G together with the faster adoption of smartphones in the US, means that by 2011, Europe is likely to be 1-2 years behind the US. This is important because they will be "Internet-years" and thus in effect the Europeans will be a decade behind! As I am British, I am not saying this to gloat, but just in wonderment. How could the American's have stolen the lead in wireless!! What happened?

M-commerce, am late?

So here I was, bravely suggesting that maybe 2010 would be the year of M-commerce, and a few recent articles suggest that I was wrong, the year of M-commerce is....2009!

Darn, this is the problem with these waiting games. You wait too long and you fall asleep and while you are snoozing, the prizes glides past you. See stories below

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2009/tc20091011_278825.htm
http://www.itvoir.com/portal/news/News/Smartphones-drive-adoption-of-M-Commerce-5-794.asp

Jitterbug wins best app award

This is pretty amazing! Jitterbug has just been awarded Best App by CTIA. This is in the midst of iPhone App Mania and the app is not even available for the iPhone but only for Jitterbug phone customers. Jitterbug is starting to make some real waves!

http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/ctia-hot-holidays-award-winners-announced